Polls show it’s Tory’s race to lose if he decides to seek a third term as mayor. We look at five potential op

Tory and potential rivals from council not talking about their election plans

With one year until Toronto’s next civic election, a new poll suggests Mayor John Tory is on track to cruise into a third term — if he wants it.

The Forum Research poll, conducted Wednesday, suggests Tory would handily beat select progressive challengers should he run for re-election Oct. 24, 2022.

Tory, 67, told the Star on Friday he is busy fighting the pandemic and still has not turned his mind to the election — but he will soon.

“The main deciding points have to do with family — it’s true of anyone in public life that it has a huge impact on your family, so I’ve always said that’s a very important consideration for me from day one and it will be again …

“The rest of it really just has to do with the things that you’d like to get done for the city if you’re going to stay. I’ve got a long list of things I’d like to get done.

“We’ll have that discussion some time in the not-too-distant future,” Tory said, adding he knows other potential candidates are watching him and, if they run, would need to start building a team and fundraising in early 2022.

“You don’t start six weeks ahead” of election day. “I’m conscious of all that.”

Sources close to Tory say he appears to be setting the stage for another run. However, issues including the health of his wife Barb Hackett, who has autoimmune nerve disorder Guillain-Barré syndrome, and his view of his mayoral legacy, could change course for the father of four and grandfather of six.

Forum Research on Wednesday asked 1,005 Torontonians who would they pick as mayor, if the election were held now, pitting Tory against prominent progressive councillors Mike Layton and Joe Cressy, who is vowing to leave city hall after next year.

Asked to choose between voting for Layton and Tory as mayor, 40 per cent chose Tory, 18 per cent chose Layton and 42 per cent were undecided. In a Tory-Cressy tilt, 42 per cent chose Tory compared to 14 per cent for Cressy, with 43 per cent undecided.

Forum also asked respondents about hypothetical mayoral matchups without Tory, involving Layton, Cressy and council colleagues Michael Thompson, Ana Bailão, Josh Matlow and Denzil Minnan-Wong.

Asked to choose between Minnan-Wong and Layton, 23 per cent chose Layton, 8 per cent chose Minnan-Wong and 69 per cent were undecided.

In a hypothetical BailãoThompson mayoral race, each got just nine per cent with a whopping 82 per cent undecided. Asked to choose between Bailão and Matlow, 11 per cent chose Matlow, seven per cent chose Bailão, and 82 per cent were unsure.

During the interactive voice response telephone survey, considered accurate within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20, Forum also asked Torontonians about potential election issues.

Just over half approved of the job the city is doing ensuring reliable transit and expanding transit; more respondents said they consider city streets dangerous for cyclists than consider them safe; more than half didn’t support the planned renaming of Dundas Street; and just over half supported the city’s decision to clear homeless encampments from parks.

Asked about property tax levels, 44 per cent said they want them to stay the same; 34 per cent wanted lower taxes even if it meant less services; and 22 per cent wanted higher property taxes to get better city services.

The Star reached out to five councillors considered potential mayoral candidates; with all eyes on Tory, none were willing to rule themselves in or out.

Mike Layton (Ward 11 University-Rosedale)

Son of the late Jack Layton, a former city councillor, mayoral candidate, MP and federal NDP leader, Mike was elected to city council in 2010.

The staunch progressive has championed initiatives to reduce climate change, tearing down the Gardiner Expressway, bike lanes on Bloor Street, affordable housing mandates and supervised injection sites.

Affable, he gets along with many council colleagues but is firmly a member of the leftleaning caucus.

Tory once shouted at him to “get up if you have the balls to do it and say it” after Layton implied Tory had withheld advance information about the province’s cut to city council.

Asked if he would ever challenge Tory for the mayor’s chair, or run in an open contest, Layton is coy: “The answer is: I don’t know.”

“There’s a lot of priorities that need focusing on in the city,” he said, noting councillors and the mayor all get one vote each, but the mayor has “a lot of influence.”

Still, he says he believes he’s been effective from his council seat.

He raised the fact it would be a challenge with two young children at home and that Tory has “raised the bar” for attendance at major events.

He did rule out running for any other level of office, including as Ontario NDP leader, anytime soon.

Ana Bailão (Ward 9 Davenport)

“My head is in the housing file and initiatives we’re bringing through,” said Bailão, council’s housing advocate and one of Tory’s three ceremonial deputy mayors. “My head is not in election mode yet.”

Bailão is known as a hardworking ally of right-leaning Tory who considers herself a practical progressive. She has said she’ll work with anyone to get as much housing built as possible to alleviate a crisis hitting Toronto’s low-income earners the most.

Asked when she thinks a councillor would have to start organizing a mayoral run, Bailão noted you can’t register as a candidate until May, but said building a team — and a war chest of about $2 million — would require organizing well before that.

“Earlier in 2022, you’d have to start organizing, or at least people will have to make a decision. By May you’d need ducks in a row,” she says. But for now Bailão, first elected in 2010, is not even committing to run for reelection as councillor.

“I’m privileged to represent this community, I have lots of work to do and I want to see it through, that’s for sure.”

Josh Matlow (Ward 12 Toronto—St. Paul’s)

As one of the true lone wolves on council, Matlow has cut a different path from most who fall into Tory’s camp or the leftleaning caucus.

Decidedly a member of neither, he has raised his own profile through fighting developers at Yonge-Eglinton in his Toronto—St. Paul’s ward, championing the Eglinton Crosstown and railing against plans to build a Scarborough subway.

The subway fight has brought him often toe to toe with Tory, who has in two successive elections promised to build the billions-dollar project amid ongoing controversy and provincial takeovers.

With a lack of allies on council, Matlow would face a difficult administration as mayor if the makeup of council remained much as it is today.

Like the others, Matlow said little about his plans whether Tory runs or not.

“My community has a lot on its plate and along with the pandemic, I’m not focused on the municipal election,” he said. “That’s a year away. My focus is on the job I’m doing now.”

Michael Thompson (Ward 21 Scarborough Centre)

Thompson, chair of economic and community development, says he has been too busy to consider his role in the 2022 election. He is not ruling out a mayoral run.

“I haven’t really been spending a lot of time on it, I haven’t sat down with my team and talked it through,” says Thompson, first elected in 2003 and the only Black member of city council.

Thompson is considered a council conservative and Tory ally who challenged the mayor and police services board in 2015 over carding — arbitrary police stops that were later scrapped. He also fights for anti-Black racism initiatives.

As for the mayoral race, Thompson says: “We know it’s all out there, it’s all dangling because whatever the opportunity is, you can assemble a team rather quickly.

“For me personally I’m not giving a lot of weight, there’s just so much going on,” trying to help Toronto’s economy recovery from the pandemic.

“There is the opportunity if it becomes available, but we have a great mayor now and a lot will be determined by what he does. I continue to support his leadership.”

Denzil Minnan-Wong (Ward 16 Don Valley East)

Likely the most right-wing member of council, Minnan-Wong is Tory’s statutory deputy mayor and has said he would never run against him.

A member of Toronto council since amalgamation, he will only say in an interview: “I’m very happy being the councillor for Ward 16.”

Minnan-Wong’s hard-right politics, and seeming delight in angering downtown progressives, would likely hamper his ability to build nonsuburban support in a citywide race.