Modano sees Matthews in his rear-view

The most prolific Americanborn scorer in NHL history has nearly three times as many goals on his resumé as Auston Matthews.

And already he’s hearing the footsteps coming out of Toronto.

“I can’t see anything stopping him from getting there,” Mike Modano said Friday night.

You still can’t call it a sure thing, not with all of the unknowns baked into every record that requires longevity. But it’s tough to look past the fact Matthews is going to reach the 200-goal milestone in 100 fewer games than it took Modano.

His next goal gets him there and it will come much faster than Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl reached that mark earlier this week, too.

It’s a reminder amid the noise of a new season of what Matthews has been building. He’s truly a unicorn. A centre that scores goals at a pace unmatched by any of his peers not named Alex Ovechkin.

“Great hands, great release,” Modano said. “He’s able to get it off in a hurry and he’s got some velocity on it. Those are two good little assets if you can get it off quick and in tight areas, and you have somewhat of an idea of where it’s going.”

No U.S.-born player has ever scored at a rate close to the Leafs star raised in Scottsdale, Ariz. Matthews’ mark of 0.59 goals per game is well ahead of Pat LaFontaine (0.54), Joe Mullen (0.47) and Modano (0.37).

Even as Matthews’ production starts to slow over time, which you’d expect from any offensively gifted player, he’s put himself on a ridiculous trajectory. Modano, who leads the way among his countrymen with 561 career goals in 1,499 games, feels like he’ll eventually be congratulating Matthews on taking the crown, just as he expects a similar exchange with Chicago Blackhawks star Patrick Kane, who is showing no signs of fall-off while trailing Modano in points, 1,374-1,093.

This is the cycle of a sporting life.

Matthews was the first American to lead the NHL in goals last season since Keith Tkachuk in 1997 and, even after a summer that included surgery on his left wrist, there’s no

reason to forecast a decline.

He celebrated his 24th birthday last month and will be the youngest Leafs player in history to hit the 200-goal milestone. Only Charlie Conacher in the 1930s and Rick Vaive in the ’80s will have done it quicker as members of the organization.

Matthews is poised to become the 14th Leafs player and the 54th American to pot 200 NHL goals.

It’s kind of crazy to look at the historical company he is already keeping at the outset of his sixth NHL season. He has scored more goals as a Leaf than Phil Kessel, Nazem Kadri and Doug Gilmour did. Among U.S.-born players, he’s already outpacing Chris Chelios, Ryan Callahan, Mark Howe and many others.

The true chase with Modano is several seasons off, but the

Minnesota Wild executive adviser already sees what’s coming. He passed Phil Housley for the all-time points record among American players and edged out Tkachuk, Jeremy Roenick and Mullen for goals.

In the later stages of his career, Modano found that to be a big source of motivation.

“There wasn’t really anything real positive in my last few years in Dallas,” he said. “There was a changeover there in the ownership and being in receivership and the NHL running our team and two or three coaches in a couple years and interim GMs. Everything was kind of going south quick my last couple years there. For me that was kind of my little goal … to kind of chase those numbers down. And then you always think about adding to ’em and making it a little bit tougher for the next guy, that’s for sure.”

Part of him wonders how much differently the benchmarks would look if not for the approximately 120 games lost to lockouts.

Matthews could point to similar interruptions to his own career, starting with the 70-game season when COVID-19 first hit and then the pandemic-shortened 56-game season earlier in the year where he scored 41 times in 52 games.

The young centre didn’t like his performance against San Jose during Friday’s 5-3 loss but he hasn’t made a habit of stringing off-nights together. That consistency has turned him into one of the NHL’s most dangerous scorers.

It’s also why Modano looks at him from afar and assumes he will continue his rapid ascent up the goals list. They are separated by a wide margin in terms of career goals but the objects in the rear-view mirror seem closer than they appear.

“A lot of things have to line up for you to get there,” Modano said. “The pace that Auston’s on, he should be able to do it if he stays healthy and plays a little while longer.

“It shouldn’t be a hard thing to catch up to, but hockey’s weird. Weird things happen and there’s a lot of ups and downs.”

Modano certainly isn’t betting against Matthews. Nor should the rest of us.