Dearth of council candidates a bad sign

Big number: 84, the total number of people registered to run for Toronto’s 25 city council seats this fall, as of Monday afternoon. With less than two weeks before the Aug. 19 registration deadline, the number of candidates is tracking way behind the 242 who ran in 2018.

With less than two weeks to go before the Aug. 19 deadline to register to run for a city council seat, the number of people who have put their name on the ballot for council races in this fall’s municipal race is lower than in any recent election.

Call it a candidate shortage. There’s something wrong with the political supply chain. It’s bad enough that incumbents in some wards may win by default.

A few weeks back, I wrote about the rush toward the exits at Toronto city hall as councillors started quitting. The job has become far more demanding, while compensation hasn’t really changed. Burnout seems rampant. So far, seven councillors have quit or signalled their intention to not seek re-election this fall — more than 25 per cent of council.

An exodus of politicians isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Turnover can bring new ideas and new perspectives. But achieving that requires a bunch of candidates to put their names on the ballot as potential replacements. And that’s just not happening.

At city hall, the rush of incumbents toward the exits is not being matched by a rush of new people toward the entrances.

Let’s look at those numbers. As of Monday afternoon, a total of 84 people were registered to run for the 25 council seats up for grabs. Even if a couple dozen more register before the deadline, there will still be a huge reduction in the number of people interested in serving their city on council. For comparison, 242 people ran to be councillors in 2018, 358 put their names on a ballot in 2014, and 279 made a bid in 2010.

It would be one thing if the reduction in the number of candidates could be linked to organized efforts to avoid splitting the vote, but there’s no evidence of that.

Sure, the political landscape is different now. Just before the 2018 election, Premier Doug Ford cut the number of councillors from 44 to 25. But that doesn’t really explain why the average number of candidates running per ward has plummeted. This year’s average — so far — of 3.4 candidates registered per ward is about a third of 2018’s 9.7. It also lags way behind the 2014 election’s 8.1, and the 6.3 average for both 2010 and 2014.

To find a number even in the same ballpark, I had to go all the way back to 2003. In that election, an average of 4.5 candidates stood for election in each ward.

That 2003 election was also the last time a municipal candidate in Toronto was acclaimed — incumbents David Shiner and Giorgio Mammoliti faced no challengers. In every election since, someone has stepped up to at least force incumbents to get off the couch.

This year, though, there’s a real chance multiple candidates will find themselves winners by default. Incumbent councillors in three wards still have no registered challengers so far.

It’s a sad state of affairs. No candidate’s record is so perfect as to justify them not having to defend it.

For example, one of those potentially cruising to an uncontested victory is Coun. Stephen Holyday of Etobicoke Centre, one of council’s most conservative members. At the July council meeting, in a debate about rent control, he complained about governments putting “more and more controls” on landlords.

“Who would even want to be a landlord anymore?” he wondered aloud, as if owning property in one of the most expensive rental markets on earth is an unmanageable burden.

Holyday also routinely votes against installing new crosswalks, new bike lanes and other road safety infrastructure. He’s argued “clear and unencumbered streets” are an important part of the character of the neighbourhoods he represents.

And hell, maybe that’s popular with voters in his ward. But it’s hard to accept that there’s no one in Etobicoke Centre ready to offer an alternative.

The same goes for the other two incumbents coasting toward victory. Don Valley North’s Shelley Carroll has had the job for 19 years. Scarborough-Guildwood’s Paul Ainslie has been in office for 16 years. At least make them get out there and explain why they deserve another four.

For challengers, the point isn’t necessarily to win. Defeating an incumbent remains absurdly hard. But in past municipal elections there have been lots of people willing to channel their passion for local issues and the dream of a better city into a long-shot bid for a seat at city hall. This year, with a few notable exceptions, a lot of that passion seems missing.

The numbers suggest civic engagement is on the decline. It’s hard not to worry about what that means for Toronto’s future.