October easy to envision

Toronto has a clear path to the playoffs — where anything can happen

There is no greater example of the raised expectations surrounding the Blue Jays than recent criticism of the club’s lack of high-profile additions at the trade deadline.

A lot of the analysis, including from this columnist, focused on the Jays’ inability to match the moves of the American League’s other top clubs. While the Jays focused on depth, the New York Yankees, Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros were busy adding impact guys, which didn’t bode well for the postseason.

That argument remains valid a week later, but it does brush aside one key detail. While the Jays’ chances in the post-season took a hit, the road to get there just got a lot easier. Not so much because of the four deals general manager Ross Atkins orchestrated on Aug. 2, but because of what the other wildcard contenders did — or, in some cases, didn’t do.

As the Jays were busy upgrading their roster last week, others were tearing theirs down, or not doing much of anything. That should result in a relatively clear path to the post-season, and a best-of-three opening-round matchup, even though the current standings suggest it will be a tight race.

The Jays entered Monday with a two-game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners for the first wild card. Beyond the top three, four teams were within five games of the final two spots. On paper, this looks like a race that will go down to the wire; on the field, it might not be that competitive at all, especially considering recent moves.

The Orioles, who had a five-game winning streak snapped Sunday, have been surprisingly competitive. Trailing the final wild card by one game, they could have opted to make a run at the post-season, but instead prioritized the rebuild by trading slugger Trey Mancini and closer Jorge López. Even though there’s enough talent to play spoiler, it would come as a shock if they remained in the race through September.

The Red Sox, five games back, are almost out of the picture entirely after they followed up an 8-19 July by dealing all-star catcher Christian Vázquez. Then there were the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox, who didn’t make any moves at all. The Rays didn’t do much, either.

Of the wild-card contenders, the Mariners were the only team besides the Jays who took an aggres- sive approach by adding front-line starter Luis Castillo. By compari- son, the Jays package of Whit Merrifield, Anthony Bass, Zach Pop and Mitch White looks like a decent enough haul.

For the Jays to miss out on the post-season, they would have to be overtaken in the standings by three teams and the odds suggest that’s not going to happen. Per FanGraphs, the Jays have a 96.6 per cent chance of making it to the playoffs. Among wild-card contenders, the Mariners are next at 83.9 per cent; no other wannabe is above 58.

Beyond talent, the Jays’ remaining strength of schedule illustrates why. Entering Monday, the combined win percentage of teams they were set to play the rest of the way was .483. Of the post-season hopefuls, only the White Sox (.480), Astros (.475) and Mariners (.474) have an easier path forward.

Injuries will play a role, as they always do, but even there the Jays should be relatively well protected.

Merrifield will help them survive without George Springer. White stepped in for Ross Stripling. The bullpen remains a question mark, but it’s better equipped to handle the loss of Tim Mayza following the additions of Bass and Pop. They have more depth than any wildcard threat outside of Tampa Bay.

Stranger things have happened, but it would be difficult for the Jays to screw this up and miss the postseason entirely, like they did a year ago. Unseating a division leader when it matters the most — well, that’s a different story after the Yankees, Twins and Astros improved their rosters more than the Jays.

That will make the Jays’ journey through October much more challenging, but the best teams don’t always win in the post-season; the hottest teams do. An abbreviated series is the great equalizer in a sport where sample sizes matter, and once teams get in anything can happen.

The Jays know that as well as anyone. In 2015, one of the most aggressive trade deadlines in recent memory wasn’t enough to unseat the Kansas City Royals in the AL Championship Series. A year later, they were favoured in the same spot against Cleveland and came up short there, too. Over the last 10 years, teams with the best records have been matched up in the World Series just once.

The next two months of the regular season won’t be easy and there’s bound to be some ups and downs along the way, but the result appears rather predictable. With a 91⁄2 -game deficit in the AL East, a run at the division crown would still be considered more of a pleasant surprise than a realistic goal. A wild-card spot, preferably the top one, ought to be a given.

It’s worth keeping that outlook in mind when looking back at this year’s deadline. Yes, the Jays could have done more. One might even argue, as I have, that they should have done more. But qualifying for the post-season is the first step, and the Jays have more than enough pieces in place to get it done.

The deadline was met with disappointment because expectations are higher for this group than any other since 1993. This core wasn’t supposed to be good; it was supposed to become great.

If this group gets hot at the right time, that might still happen. Additional moves would have helped, but the Jays should be post-season bound, and once they arrive everything is on the table.