The Stiles coronation comes at a cost

One by one they folded. And then there was one. By default, Marit Stiles is the last politician still standing — or more precisely, running in place — for the New Democratic Party leadership.

Now, it is a race without rivals — no convention and no competition.

What does that say about the Ontario NDP? Is the party leadership no longer a prize worth pursuing?

That’s the awkward question posed by the party’s critics: If the NDP were truly a government in waiting, pretenders to the throne would be jumping into the fray without delay — or so goes the goading.

In past times, NDP leadership races were always hotly contested (even with no prospect of power). This time, all other MPPs took a pass and posted hand-wringing regrets on their Twitter feeds rather than rallying recruits on the campaign trail.

As political drama goes, this race is a bust. Without the cut and thrust (and bluster) of debate, who will propel policy forward, or generate suspense to drive media coverage?

A coronation comes at a cost of predictability. And electability.

But for all the complaining about the acclaiming of Stiles, what if no news is good news for the fractious NDP? What if everything is going according to plan for the incoming leader, who now inherits an unusually united party?

Rather than a sign of party weakness, the outcome can also be seen as a show of personal strength by Stiles.

From the outset she firmly established herself as the unrivalled front-runner and fundraiser, prompting the also-rans to surrender without a fight.

While other MPPs were still trying to talk themselves into running up until the last minute, Stiles was talking up her own candidacy. While rivals were still trying to pony up the party’s entrance fee, Stiles was already paid up. While other MPPs were tying their shoelaces, Stiles had sewn up most caucus support.

For all the naysaying about such a nothing leadership race — politicos and pundits love a good slugfest — let us not be churlish about how far Stiles has come, even if she has a long way still to go. A little-known party staffer and union organizer has risen through the ranks, paid her dues as a school trustee, served her time as national NDP president, snatched her downtown Toronto riding from the Liberals, won re-election with ease and now takes the helm — if not quite by storm or stealth, then by stamina.

That said, she is now no more known — now that the results are known — than when the race began. Winning handily can be hard — be careful what you wish for — because now the real work begins.

The traditional political playbook is to play up the leader’s personality and personal story. That’s the pathway for celebrity politicians, but it rarely works for opposition leaders in Ontario politics, which few people follow closely.

For most of her13 years on the job, ex-leader Andrea Horwath aspired to a cult of personality based on her presumed popularity. When she finally resigned after her fourth general election defeat, Horwath imagined herself a conquering hero returning to her native Hamilton as the so-called “Steeltown Scrapper,” yet barely eked out victory as mayor.

The point is that popularity, like populism, is ephemeral. Horwath’s personal polling numbers were high when the incumbent premier’s numbers were low — and vice versa.

In reality, people were parking their votes with the NDP, mostly protesting unpopular Liberal or Progressive Conservative governments (until redirecting their support to a safer harbour). Voters never warmed to Horwath, and it may take years for Stiles to gain much love in the limelight.

How then can she grow the party, not just her own popularity?

Stiles needs to avoid the mistake made by Horwath, who kept repeating the same message in every election, unchanging and unpersuasive, in hopes that Ontarians would one day come around. In short, Stiles needs to play the long game — by growing as a leader in ways that Horwath never did, while keeping a sense of proportion about herself.

The NDP can’t keep preaching to the converted. It needs to convert more voters.

The party must also reach out to the base it left behind, which is to say blue collar workers who are migrating to the revamped Big Blue (Collar) Machine of Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives. While the Tories have bungled labour issues of late, few can deny that workers were ripe for the picking when Ford reached out to them.

His outreach might have struck diehard New Democrats as unfathomable, implausible and heretical, but the mere fact that he could even attempt the feat suggests that at ground level Horwath long ago lost hearts and minds, wallets and votes.

The fatal conceit of NDP true believers is their incontrovertible assumption that everyone gets their message, likes their press lines, and hates either the Liberals or Tories with the same visceral disgust as they do. The results of the last two decades suggest otherwise — that the NDP is their last choice in a pinch.

New Democrats need to stop counting on the presumed death of the rival Liberals as their path to power — the fantasy didn’t come true for Jack Layton as federal leader, or help Horwath provincially. When a party dynasty collapses it’s premature to predict its demise, as the perennial reincarnations of Liberals and PCs remind us.

As Stiles prepares to take over, the NDP has a chance to offer a new platform and a stronger pitch — based not on the leader’s personality, nor the repugnance of rival parties, but on the personal aspirations and realities of Ontario voters.