Give Eagles, Chiefs edge on home turf

Sunday’s NFL conference championship games will determine which teams go to the Super Bowl. The San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles, defensive titans, will square off for the NFC title before the Kansas City Chiefs host the Cincinnati Bengals for the AFC crown. The Bengals are vying for their second consecutive Super Bowl appearance. Here’s how the NorthStar Bets team sees things going against the spread:

Sunday 49ers (+3) at Eagles 3 p.m. (CTV/Fox) Nick Ashbourne says

Generally speaking, when the Eagles are playing at Lincoln Financial Field you don’t want to bet against them. Philadelphia is 7-3-0 against the spread at home, with one of the losses coming with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew at the helm.

The 49ers are tough, but the only winning team they beat on the road was the overachieving Seattle Seahawks. Philadelphia is in a different category.

San Francisco rookie quarterback Brock Purdy may not have what it takes to put up a significant point total against a team that allowed the fewest passing yards in the regular season (175.9 per game). The Eagles were also two sacks short of the NFL single-season record (72).

When the Eagles have the ball, they should be able to exploit the 49ers’ biggest defensive weakness: their cornerbacks. San Francisco’s front seven is incredible, but the secondary is more vulnerable. In two playoff games, their opponents’ top receivers, D.K. Metcalf and Ceedee Lamb, combined for 254 yards. Pick Eagles

Bengals (+1) at Chiefs 6:30 p.m. (CTV/CBS) Steven Psihogios says

The focus has been on the quarterback duel between Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes. Both have a lot riding on this contest, but that’s not the most important matchup.

The most crucial battle will be in the trenches between Cincinnati’s offensive line and Kansas City’s defensive line. The Bengals, aided by sloppy winter conditions, did an excellent job of masking their offensive-line issues against the Bills, but will have a tougher time versus the Chiefs.

Chris Jones totalled 15 1⁄ sacks 2 this past season, tying for fourth in the NFL. With him and Frank Clark (one sack, two tackles for a loss in the divisional round) firing on all cylinders, the losses of injured Alex Cappa, La’el Collins and Jonah Williams on Cincinnati’s offensive line will become a bigger factor.

Although Burrow has historically succeeded in the face of pressure, expect him to be under siege against Kansas City. Mahomes may be dealing with a high-ankle sprain, but I’m betting on him and the Chiefs to cover at home. Pick Chiefs

Record

Regular season against the spread: Psihogios: 125-139-7 | Ashbourne: 117-134-6